The months of talking concerning antidumping tariffs for Chinese cells and modules in the EU finally came to an end a short while ago. As is well known, minimum import prices and maximum import volumes were agreed upon. Prices fluctuated until the middle of July in the face of the ongoing discussions and have been effectively frozen since the end of the month.
There are hardly any goods to be found on the market below the EU-mandated 56 euro cent mark. At least the uncertainty and speculation are now at an end. Conditions for those Chinese manufacturers that have submitted to the price and volume restrictions are fixed and, at least for the time being, not up for negotiation.
However, the major manufacturers in China are under no pressure to sell. They are increasingly selling their products, often at higher prices, to clients outside Europe, some even achieving record quarterly sales figures. Trina, Jinko, Canadian Solar and ReneSola share almost 40% of the world market between them but have not had a major presence in Germany or the EU as a whole for a long time. Hanwha, increasingly attempting to establish itself with Q Cells in the premium price segment, has ruled itself out, along with the other big suppliers from South Korea, as a supplier of low-cost solar modules.
Those obliged to purchase more affordable modules, either for simple economic reasons or existing commitments, are dependent on one of the few remaining stockpiles – with or without guarantee – or on products from less well-known manufacturers, some with a dubious background. Cash in advance is, of course, the rule here.
It remains to be seen whether smaller manufacturers from Taiwan, other parts of Southeast Asia or even India and Pakistan will be able, in the foreseeable future, to fill the vacuum which has been created in the lower price segment. Before Chinese manufacturers cornered the European market, perfectly viable products at reasonable conditions were available from these regions in the mid-2000s. Indian module producers in particular, were neck and neck with the competition from China in the race to take market share away from the (at the time) dominant Germans, French and Spanish. However, once the domestic market in India was discovered, which happened much quicker than in China, nothing more was heard from these firms in Europe. Technically speaking, Indian products are at least close to the required standard and that goes without saying for Taiwanese products. The bankability of the modules depends on how sound the company of origin is and there are a number of remarkable candidates in these regions.
It now remains to be seen how quickly these new, promising module manufacturers can provide the necessary capacity for the European market and one can only hope that over-zealous EU commissioners don’t immediately decide to batten down the hatches again.