The year 2013 was calm as far as general price development is concerned. If prices in 2012 only saw one direction independent of the respective technologies – downward –, they remained quite stable over the entire year of 2013, and they have even converged.
Although the downturn in prices for Japanese and German crystalline modules on the European spot market slowed down in November, it could not be stopped. Even prices for modules from China gave way again. Only the prices for imports from Southeast Asia stabilized with a slight upward trend towards December. This development is explained by largely exhausted import quotas and simultaneous sales of the abundant goods stocked from China at reduced rates.
The year 2013 was calm as far as general price development is concerned. If prices in 2012 only saw one direction independent of the respective technologies – downward –, they remained quite stable over the entire year of 2013, and they have even converged. Prices for Chinese and Southeast Asian modules are currently only 18-25% below the prices for products from Europe and Japan. In January 2013 China’s module prices were still 36% below those of Japanese products. Since then the Japanese market has cooled down somewhat, in turn bringing more Japanese and Korean goods to Europe.
Over the year as a whole, modules from Japan and Korea have put the largest downward adjustment behind them with just under 15%, while clearly less changes were to be seen among German modules with minus 10% and China modules with plus 7.5%. In 2012 prices fell by 30% on average from January to December, and in the years before even more. This dynamic movement is no longer to be expected in the future.
In 2013 the PV market was characterized by cuts in the feed-in remuneration and/or solar subsidies in many European countries. Many ostensibly healthy enterprises struggled or had to give up completely. In the best case orderly insolvency proceedings were conducted independently. An investor did not always come along from the Far East to save the day. Several well-known names and brands have fallen permanently by the wayside.
Since the end of 2012 the worldwide PV industry has been concerned with antidumping and anti-subsidy campaigns. At first there were just a few participants, starting in the USA, opposing the threatening market supremacy of Chinese module and cell manufacturers. The result is well-known – the EU Commissioner in charge reached agreement on minimum prices and maximum import quantities with most Chinese manufacturers, so called "Undertaking".
However, European manufacturers – for whom this support frequently came much too late – were not necessarily the beneficiaries of the trade disputes; but rather smaller and, up to now insignificant module and cell manufacturers from the remaining Asian region. They experienced a boost in demand, particularly in Europe in the last quarter of 2013, and thus a boom comparable only to when Chinese manufacturers entered into the German and Spanish market in the years 2006/2007.
The consolidation – an elegant euphemism for company mergers and failures – among manufacturers, wholesale dealers, and project developers in Europe will presumably continue in 2014. Other big names will disappear, but new stars will also appear on the sky time and again. SolarWorld will buy the solar division from Bosch – or will it be the other way around? Let's wait and see.