Crystalline modules in demand
Compared with the consistent price falls in previous months, the situation in January was more complicated. Although the results show that prices were indeed lower than in the previous month, the second half of the month showed a slight upward trend, especially in the case of Chinese Tier 1 manufacturers. The prices for thin-film modules, however, continued to fall.
Following the announcement of the expansion of installed pv capacities in Germany for 2011, and subsequent debate regarding more severe cuts, we saw a considerable increase in activity on our platform. The increase in installed pv capacity of 3 GWp in December alone led, according to the preliminary figures of the Federal Network Agency, to an overall increase in Germany of approximately 7.5 GWp for 2011. This is far above the planned range of 2.5 to 3.5 GWp laid out in the flexible cap, and even above the previous record value recorded in 2010. On the initiative of the Ministry of Economy, this was followed by a public debate concerning immediate amendment of the REA. The demands included, amongst other things, severe cuts in feed-in tariffs as early as April and a strict limitation of expansion of installed pv capacities to 1 GWp per year.
The positions of the opposing sides differ so intensely that the markets remain extremely concerned about changes in subsidization beginning in April (or, depending on legislative schedules, summer). In a repeat of the situation at the beginning of 2010, plans for installation projects are being brought forward into Q1 in order to get solar systems connected to the grid within a period in which the determining factors are clear. As a consequence of the enormous price crash in 2011, expected ROI continues to be attractive, even in view of pending cuts in compensation at the beginning of January.
The majority of manufacturers were insufficiently prepared for such an early pick-up in demand and had, as at the end of 2011, already announced their intention to cut back production. Additionally, the dealers’ warehouse stocks are very low after the record month in December. Consequently, on the basis of the offers on our platform, we were able to recognize not only considerable price differences between different manufacturers in individual categories, but also that the price spread for the same manufacturer and module type was very large from one provider to another.
Based on what we observed on our platform in the second half of January, and the ongoing uncertainty of the political situation, we predict (at least for crystalline modules) no significant price drops in February and March. Even a slight rise could be possible, a situation last seen for crystalline modules in our price barometer in September 2010.