After a uniquely pleasant but dry summer and fall, it has been raining and snowing in central Europe for weeks with no sign of letting up. Judging on sheer volume, the god of precipitation apparently wants to make up for his neglect of last year. The weather has conjured memories of the catastrophic winter of 2006 when the roofs of numerous industrial and commercial buildings succumbed to the weight of their snowy burdens, claiming a number of lives. This winter building owners in the Alpine regions are once again anxiously eyeing their creaking roofs. Special emergency personnel are working around-the-clock to clear the most serios hazards. PV plant owners, too, are struggling to maintain the stability of their structures, not least because entering their facilities to clear the slippery surfaces is nearly impossible under these weather conditions.
But it is doubtful whether the concept of thawing the modules by reversing the flow of power to the modules in the wintertime is really a practical solution. Even if a damp, heavy slab of snow can be set into motion at all, it is unlikely to get past the edge of the roof or its snow guard system. This would necessitate sending power continuously to the PV array to prevent the build-up of a thick layers of snow. And it is also doubtful that this would make sense from an energy perspective. One interesting approach might be an automated mechanical snow clearing device that could be used to clean the modules in the summertime. It is exciting to think about the new innovations we will be presented with in the future.
But what is the market doing now, and how are module prices trending at the start of the new year?
For weather reasons, demand has been flat so far. In the Alpine regions, in view of the massive amounts of snow, it is likely that business is just now beginning to ramp up. The rest of Europe is likely to be hobbled by sustained rainy weather, but that said, in northern and western Germany teams of installers seem to have started work already. Nevertheless, there is plenty of catching up to do on projects that were left idle between Christmas and New Year’s. The next big cut in feed-in tariffs for mid-sized PV plants is coming up, motivating many operators to get their new installations reliably connected to the grid by the end of January.
Most of the modules delivered since the second week of January, however, were already ordered last year. Those who are just now going shopping for plant components may be surprised to find empty warehouses and long delivery times – they will not be picking and choosing among brands and products, at any rate. There are still modules and inverters to be had from wholesalers, but almost all of the big manufacturers are virtually sold out, and they are consoling their customers with the news that deliveries will resume in the second or even the third quarter of the year. The supply situation is particularly bad for high-efficiency monocrystalline modules above 300 watts-peak. In contrast, polycrystalline modules are still plentiful, at least on the spot market.
The current situation is not accurately reflected in module prices. While prices for the mostly polycrystalline mainstream modules have stagnated, they have actually dropped somewhat over the previous month for monocrystalline modules (high-efficiency and all-black). This can be ascribed mostly to the reduction of prices for products branded AUO-Benq, LG, and Panasonic, which up to now have been much more expensive. These mark-downs have a greater effect on the average price of this module class as a whole than those of other brands. Unfortunately, customers never see much of these slight but visible discounts because in many cases there is no actual availability. The cost of goods available on short notice may be subject to price movements in the opposite direction.
One more gratifying development is that the general trend in performance classes continues to creep upward. The 400 watt-peak mark can be considered the target at present. Module manufacturers will be judged on which of them achieves this performance class first with a workable product. I have taken this observation into account and raised the output threshold between the Mainstream module group and the High-Efficiency module group by 5 watt in the current price index to 290 watts-peak.
The trend towards stagnating prices with slight upward and downward fluctuations will be with us throughout the first quarter of 2019. As long as there are no big surprises from further political meddling, supplies should roughly balance with demand. Global demand will also climb at a moderate rate, as no boom is expected in China before the second half of the year. However, it is still uncertain how the German market will develop following the second quarter when the final stage of the EEG feed-in tariff reductions bite. I anticipate at least a temporary market collapse and an associated oversupply, which could then lead manufacturers and dealers to correct prices downward. Just when this materializes and to what extent remains to be seen.
Overview of the price points by technology in January 2019 including the changes over the previous month (as of January 17, 2018):
