Market Analysis June 2014 - Calm before the rush - May remained comparatively quiet but a run on modules is expected in June and July

The prices for modules from China enjoyed a breather last month while the few products from Germany that remained on the market continued in their race to catch up.

Huge price differences still exist, however, between German or European goods and those from China and Southeast Asia. Large PV plants are now only implemented with module purchase prices below the €0.50 mark. Small systems on the other hand, which in Germany are now often equipped with storage technology and energy management, are not as price-sensitive. Here it is still possible to use modules that have prices fluctuating in the region of or above €0.60 per watt like most of the products from Germany, Japan or Korea.

The highest demand within Europe is still from the United Kingdom, where new megawatt plants are constantly springing up. A steep rise in installation figures, however, is also expected for Germany in June and July since on 1 August 2014 the Renewable Energy Sources Act will again be adjusted, making a further expansion of photovoltaics even less attractive. Consequently, everything that is already at an advanced planning stage and that can also somehow be completed must be connected to the grid by the end of July.

At Intersolar, Europe's biggest solar trade fair which again tempted many industry players to Munich at the beginning of June, it was not only good and above all value-for-money products that were sought after but also ways out of the crisis. Many exhibitors offered "intelligent" system solutions with storage systems and energy management. Given the "solar tax" still publicized by German government representatives, i.e., the contribution of private and commercial PV systems to the Renewable Energy Sources Act levy, it is doubtful whether these complete and frequently also complex solutions will become the universal remedy. Here too, profitability and therefore marketability are determined by the purchase prices of the individual components. Storage systems, however, are still not so reasonably priced that they can automatically be integrated in every project. Practicable solutions are still being sought in vain for medium to large-scale plants.

As a result, module and inverter prices are still what tips the scales – they are the deciding factor for the attractiveness of a PV investment. And, as already explained initially, the requirements and ideas of many buyers are very ambitious. As a result, prices are being driven further downwards, regardless of the EU regulations and the ambitions of SolarWorld CEO Frank Asbeck, who is continuing undeterred to fight against Asian dominance in cell and module production by recently announcing 1,000 infringements against the European-Chinese minimum price undertaking.

But what use to all of us are prices that are kept artificially high if we destroy the market in the process? The market demands reasonably priced products and will ultimately be served by whatever tortuous paths necessary. For those involved it will only become riskier. In the end, the winners will not be those who are quality-aware, careful and honest. No, it will be those who are ruthless and irresponsible, the players who are still in at the end of the game. We must apply the lever somewhere else entirely – or simply attempt to play along in the globalized market.