Market Analysis June 2017 - The air is getting thin, but we won't let that spoil the mood!

Even after the European solar industry trade fair in Munich, Intersolar 2017, prices for all regions of origin and technologies have remained largely stable. The feared shortage is particularly evident in the market for high capacity modules, as well as in European products and previously European brands.

Former SolarWorld customers are shifting their purchasing activities in the direction of comparable modules and in the medium term have bought up everything the market has to offer, which is why the modules of some manufacturers will not generally be available again until August or September. Nevertheless, providers remain locked in a fierce price war, preventing the cost of modules from rising, despite a looming bottleneck.

In the module sector, largely unknown manufacturers from the cell and wafer business with tier-1 status are rushing into the market. After Talesun and China Sunenergy (CSUN), HT-Solar (HT-SAAE) and especially GCL are making life rough for the established module manufacturers. Now that SolarWorld, one of the last major non-Asian producers, is out of the race, mainly Chinese companies are battling it out amongst themselves. And although local producers have just barely managed to stay competitive in the European project environment, they have long since missed the boat on international tenders. Prices in international projects - often no more than 30 US cents per watt - are at a level that Europeans can no longer keep up with.

One thing that is still playing right into the hands of domestic companies is the fact that customs clearance for modules from Taiwan and Malaysia is becoming increasingly difficult, even when they are not modules from China with disguised origin, but goods actually produced in these countries. The European Commission is now so strict and resolute that many logistics companies offering importing or fiscal customs clearance as a service have had their fingers burnt. The draconian punishments - retroactive levying of the punitive tariff plus a fine - have led many service providers to make a wide arc around solar modules and cells. In the Rotterdam area, if not across the Netherlands, it is nearly impossible to find a customs agent willing to import Asian modules.

Despite the still turbulent times, the mood at the solar trade fair in early June was generally very good, even though the visitor numbers, and the crush at the trade fair stands, was rather modest. This left more time for intensive discussions and promising sales negotiations. Another thing worth mentioning perhaps is that it was the first Intersolar in Germany for more than two decades - if not since the advent of the solar trade fair itself - held without the participation of SolarWorld. The insolvency administrator preferred not to offer a platform for any embarrassing questions and keep the event at arm's length. Whether this was the right approach for a continuation scenario remains doubtful.

Module and inverter manufacturers were the focus of intense interest, even though you had to look long and hard to find genuine technical innovations in the area of conventional PV technology. That was offset by the many new products and services to discover in the energy storage area. Simplified billing methods and the electricity communities that are cropping up everywhere make it seem like we are on the cusp of a breakthrough. Convinced of this certainty, the market leader Sonnen was not alone in partying after the official close of the trade fair, Senec and Mercedes, too, invited guests to their booth parties offering both culinary and acoustic counterpoints - a battle of the parties fraught with symbolism.

Energy storage systems are the next big thing in the photovoltaic industry! ... Heard that before years ago? Well, now it seems it is finally becoming a reality!

Overview by technology of different price points in May 2017, including the changes over the previous month (The prices shown reflect average asking prices for duty-paid goods on the European spot market):

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