Market Analysis June 2024 - PV market eyes recovery amid falling module prices

The whole of Europe is crazy about the UEFA EURO 24, which was also noticeable at The Smarter E Europe in Munich, still better known within the photovoltaics industry as Intersolar, which is now part of the overall concept. This exhibition area for suppliers of solar technologies took up 10 halls and also the largest part of the fully booked exhibition grounds in Munich Riem, which have a total of 18 halls. Overall, the event is described as the largest and most comprehensive solar trade fair of this series that has ever taken place.

The atmosphere was upbeat at the recent trade show in Munich, despite high hotel prices due to the ongoing UEFA football championship. Most of the halls were well attended. Exhibitors appeared to be pleased with the trade fair, but football was omnipresent, with matches playing on monitors at every stand. On Wednesday in particular, all events were planned and carried out around the Germany vs. Hungary match, which began at 6 p.m. Networking and Public Viewing formed a perfect symbiosis.

However, beneath the positive mood lie significant challenges for the PV industry. Demand hasn't rebounded this year - a reality reflected by declining installation figures in Germany. For example, no player within the industry that I have spoken to recently expects that we will be able to match last year's high installation figures this year. Module prices, especially for passivated emitter and rear cell (PERC) and tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) technologies, have seen slight decreases, indicating an ongoing supply-demand imbalance.

Despite efforts, there's an oversupply of modules flooding the European market, including cutting-edge designs. Analysts attribute this to Chinese products facing import restrictions and pricing challenges in some markets, while Asian markets struggle with low sales prices, aiming to clear excess inventory. Many large manufacturers may scale back expansion, with smaller players expected to exit the market soon.

The markets for inverters and storage systems face similar challenges, with a flood of Asian manufacturers dominating the sector at The Smarter E. Several halls were almost exclusively occupied by Chinese companies and one was reminded of the Chinatown districts of some large cities. The trade fair organizer also states that Chinese suppliers made up by far the largest proportion of all nationalities this year.

Commercial and industrial (C&I) solutions were prominent, underscoring potential to meet energy needs with tailored storage solutions. In fact, I also see enormous potential in commercial systems and can only advise every experienced installer and planner to familiarize themselves with the subject in good time. Accurately covering the energy needs of commercial and industrial companies while incorporating suitable storage solutions may be somewhat more complex than setting up a classic small photovoltaic system, but the market penetration of corresponding concepts is still low and the opportunities for differentiation from the competition are therefore great.

Manufacturers are offering extensive support, including seminars and promotional campaigns, in order to boost market adoption. The outlook remains positive, with anticipated market growth in the second half of the year, buoyed by supportive policies such as the "Solarpacket 1" measures in Germany.

Overview of price points broken down by technology in June 2024 including changes over the previous month (as of 24 June 2024):

Overview of price points broken down by technology in June 2024 including changes over the previous month