Despite relatively mild temperatures, PV demand in Europe has not quite hit its stride yet. March saw a slight price increase for modules from all regions of origin. That was primarily down to the weak euro, however. Nevertheless, a general shortage of cheap Asian goods is discernible.
In Germany, despite the weakening market, a rise in feed-in tariffs for PV is nowhere in sight. Over the past half year, less than 100 MW of capacity a month has been installed. This represents a significant shortfall from the planned expansion corridor and should actually trigger an immediate rise in the feed-in tariff. This is sure to be a topic of discussion over the next few weeks.
February has already seen lively debate over Chinese solar producers such as Canadian Solar, ET Solar, and Renesola. The EU Commission has accused these manufacturers of evading on a massive scale the voluntary price undertaking, a negotiated agreement between China and the EU aimed at avoiding a rise in import duty. The companies under fire have reacted very differently to the accusations, from outright denials to disinterested shrugs. Renesola, for instance, has announced that it wants to pull out of the agreement altogether and simply accept the duty on Chinese goods. The company already manufactures its goods outside of China anyway, and a vanishingly small proportion of its solar panels are bound for the European market. Moreover, dropping the agreement would in many respects make life easier for the company. Other producers will likely soon follow suit.
In addition, rumors that the minimum import price (MIP) will be raised by three euro cents to the original level of €0,56/Wp are solidifying. Against this backdrop, Chinese manufacturers in particular have announced price increases of up to ten percent. As of the publication date of this article it is not yet fully clear whether this is just a marketing ploy European solar companies are using to put dealers and installers under pressure or if the price rise is actually necessary. Impending price rises are known to bring short-term increases in demand and stocking-up purchases. The idea is that this brings down existing stock levels faster before the new goods are delivered at the current import prices.
It is obvious, however, that the European market could not handle a general price increase in the single- to double-digit percentage range. Already catastrophically low demand would completely flat-line, and the body count of bankrupt solar companies would inevitably rise. To avoid this fate, the solar industry must once again come together in a concerted effort and send a clear signal to the European Commission and the European Parliament that the minimum import price and the volume cap must be scrapped and anti-dumping measures done away with before it is too late.