Contrary to all - or at least my - expectations, module prices have fallen again this month. For most mainstream modules, this can perhaps be explained by continued high inventory levels in the PERC segment, which still exist due to the not yet exhausted demand at the beginning of the year. These backlogs urgently need to be reduced. However, in the "High Efficiency" class, which essentially comprises products with TOPCon, HJT or IBC cells, a further fall in prices cannot be justified.
The influx of modules to Europe was severely limited in January and February, and no more goods were to enter the European market without a binding prior order. No high-efficiency modules are available at short notice, at least from the better-known manufacturers. New deliveries will continue well into April and May, and even June in some cases. The low-price offers that are increasingly available on the market or on various online marketplaces must therefore all come from wholesalers who have miscalculated and ordered quantities that are too high for the current subdued demand.
The modules from well-known brands and with outputs from 425 W upwards that are constantly arriving are currently landing on the market at prices that can barely cover production costs, let alone include an adequate trading margin. At a wholesale price of between €0.11 and €0.14/W, nothing has been earned, as any reputable manufacturer, even from China, will confirm. This makes it all the more difficult to understand the strategy behind such predatory prices - is it pure necessity, or is the aim here to damage and suppress competition?
The latter is obvious when you look at new online marketplaces, which no longer even bother to hide their low-price offers behind a registration and login. Although the small print indicates that the offers are only for specialist companies, by the time the end customer has found and read this information, the damage has already been done. Price points are being shown in the market that can only be described as absolutely damaging to business for both the upstream and downstream segments.
If wholesalers are increasingly being made aware by customers of the price levels that now exist on the Internet, and then have to decide whether to reduce margins further in order to keep up, what will happen to the installers themselves? Earning money from the sale of materials in order to offset other costs that they have not been able to charge the customer for in full or at all will soon be a thing of the past. In future, the exact names and prices of individual components will increasingly be hidden in package deals. This conceals important information in order to avoid discussions, which in turn leads to a lack of transparency in product selection and makes real price comparisons impossible.
Whichever way you look at it, price information in the wrong hands leads to problems along the entire supply chain. A deeper understanding of the market is often lacking among the creators of such quickly programmed online marketplaces. Everyone thinks they can jump on the bandwagon and celebrate short-term success in a promising sector thanks to rapid growth and low risk. The platform operators are often not even interested in creating a sustainable, profitable business model in the long term.
Rapid growth and fantasies of market dominance until the exit, i.e. the takeover by a financial investor, dominate the strategy. What this does to the environment, i.e. suppliers, competitors and customers, is irrelevant. As long as the company's own story is right, which is regularly backed up with sensational, often unverifiable success stories, everything is fine. The fact that others who have built up their business solidly and run it with a certain business ethic and fairness fall by the wayside is accepted, perhaps even provoked, by this type of market participant. "Everyone thinks of themselves, even in the end,"" seems to be the motto here.
But the most outrageous thing comes last: the operators of one of these newly founded online marketplaces actually claim to have invented the concept long awaited by the European solar industry for managing quotas and surplus stock, and even a completely new disruptive business model that is intended to facilitate and channel transparent trade across national borders. That's what we say to colleagues from platforms such as Solartraders, Secondsol and pvXchange (in its earlier incarnation): Congratulations - you've had a super idea, but unfortunately you are not the first. And please do your homework, otherwise things will soon go disruptively downhill!
Overview of price points broken down by technology in March 2024 including changes over the previous month (as of 14 March 2024):
