These days you have to look very closely to see individual rays of light in the very dark skies above the solar sector in Europe. The installation figures for Germany reported to the German Federal Network Agency have dropped again.
- with September having the lowest monthly figure for several years, nurturing the certainty that the 2 gigawatt threshold will only just be reached, if indeed it is reached at all this year. The outlook is hardly better in neighboring countries where barely any major solar projects are being implemented.
Module prices, however, are not dropping to the extent that one would actually expect of them in this market situation. Many European manufacturers are looking towards markets outside the European Union where PV companies are still enjoying a boom. Although it is not always possible to achieve higher margins there, at least it is still possible to supply megawatt projects with a certain level of commitment. By comparison, on the immediate borders of the European Union – let’s take Turkey or some of the Balkan states for example – more hot air is being generated than actual installations. Nevertheless, when acquiring materials, it is possible to identify where the module prices might actually be if there were no anti-dumping measures against Chinese manufacturers, that is around 0.40 euros per watt.
The much vaunted small power plant business is proving to be difficult for many suppliers as consolidation of the sector continues to advance. Many producers are gradually getting rid of the distribution structures since more and more distributors are giving up. Another renowned German company with a long tradition, Energiebau, recently got into difficulties and had to file for preliminary insolvency. Other distributors are trying to beat an orderly retreat from the PV business. In terms of the European energy policy, it is a sad outcome for an important pillar of the successful energy transition to be destabilized in this manner.
So where are those chinks of light? More money is again being put into research and development worldwide, particularly in the development of more efficient and more reasonably priced storage technologies. In addition to basic research into novel material combinations and industrial research for developing cost reductions, there is also increasing finance for pilot projects with large storage devices. At the same time, growing numbers of small power plants are being sold with integrated storage and energy management systems. It appears that people have lost confidence in an energy transition from on high and are now taking matters into their own hands. This will also lead to new business concepts – and gratifying new prospects.