There were no many surprises in last month's market and module price development. With broadly stable prices, the markets in Germany and Europe saw, at best, a slight improvement from September to October, but on the whole it is still at a disappointing level.
I'll take this state of affairs as an opportunity to look into the reasons for why the current market is in such a state and not faring better. This is not an especially difficult exercise. Once again we are getting a lesson these days from the big policy makers in what the new energy economy is all about: cold-blooded power and big business politics at the expense of the consumers and taxpayers.
Billion-euro lawsuits or threatened legal actions from nuclear power companies, forced gifts and subsidies to coal power plant operators, years of fraudulent behavior in connection with emissions limits - this is the dire news of the shameless business practices of some of Europe's biggest corporations that has been dominating the headlines over the past few weeks. Meanwhile, we stare dumbfounded at how the expansion of renewables falters and how the introduction of environmentally responsible vehicles is undermined. Is that the necessary course of the energy transition, or is this about conserving profits for large-scale investors and power structures?
Other countries have long since passed us by and are setting the example for how committed green energy policy is done. Officials in Chile have now confirmed that PV power is the cheapest source of electricity in the country. As such, the country is promoting efforts to decommission fossil fuel based power plants and break its dependence on energy imports by building ever more PV systems and not strangling the market. Here in Germany, across all of the political camps, the support for a transition to a renewable source of energy seems to be unanimous in principle. The trouble is that none of them can decide which source that should be and how fast the transition ought to take place.
Catering to the conventional energy industry seems to know almost no bounds in Germany. The influence of the "Big Four" (E.ON, RWE, Vattenfall und EnBW) is apparently still too strong. Flying in the face of reason, admissions are being made that will end up costing of us huge sums of money, which will no longer be available for the expansion of renewable energy. The latest act of bungling is the multi-billion euro payouts the big energy conglomerates are collecting for reserving capacity from coal-fired power plants that are actually already supposed to be switched off. And the debate is still raging over who will pay the horrendous costs associated with the government plan to drop atomic energy, the taxpayer or the utility customer! And this, despite years of massive profits at every one of the big energy companies - is this even possible?!?
At the same time, the government passes out gifts to the deeply entrenched energy industry; it has announced a rise in the renewable energy surcharge in Germany (EEG-Umlage). Of course, consumers are not happy. Ever-rising electricity costs are all the fault of renewables, right? What else could it be? Nonetheless, in January 2016, feed-in tariffs for PV power fed into the grid will not likely be lowered again, but rather remain at the previous-year level. This is the result of low installation numbers over the past few months solely. The idea that this could revitalize the market in some way is highly doubtful, however. The level is simply too low to produce acceptable returns at current system prices. That is why within the ranks of the solar industry, there is already talk of eliminating the renewable energy act (EEG) to put an end to the counterproductive effect of the renewable energy surcharge on the overall market, and thus boost the image of renewables.
Elimination of import restrictions on Chinese solar panels and cells, which would bring PV panel prices down by some 20%, could have a really positive effect on market development. But even on this issue, the German government is highly indecisive. The current attitude can be summed up as: "We have other problems right now and have no desire to take up this issue yet again. Why don't we just leave well enough alone." A group or EU parliamentarians in Brussels spanning a number of different factions has shown much more foresight on this issue and has called for a quick scrapping of the trade restrictions to save the solar industry. If only this call would be heard!
The bottom line is that the transition to clean energy cannot be achieved by throwing money at energy conglomerates or preventing the implementation of important environmental technology. The politics of empty promises and misdirected efforts is a policy that leads only to undershooting our own targets. What we need now is an urgent change of course in the direction of responsible support of the only sustainable energy sources and their intelligent use. If we fail to do this, the formerly touted energy transition that won international recognition for Germany could end up making the country an international laughing stock. To put it in the words of our Chancellor: We can do it!
Last but not least, below is an overview of the last month new introduced price points, including changes:
| Module class | Price (€/Wp) | Change rel. to prev. month |
Description |
| High Efficiency | 0.70 | + 1.4 % | Crystalline modules 275 Wp and above with PERC, HIT, N-Type or back-contact cells, or combinations thereof. |
| All Black | 0.59 | 0.0 % | Module types with black back sheet, black frame and a rated power between 190 Wp and 270 Wp. |
| Mainstream | 0.49 | - 3.9 % | Modules typically with 60 cells, standard aluminum frame, white back sheet and 245-270 Wp, represents the majority of the modules in the market. |
| Low Cost | 0.39 | + 2.6 % | Low-output modules, factory seconds, insolvency goods, used modules (crystalline), products with limited or no warranty. |
(The prices shown reflect the average prices quoted on the European spot market (customs cleared) for the month of October 2015.)