For the first time in 10 years, the average price of solar panels manufactured in China reached parity with the cost of solar panels produced in Europe. But this notable situation was short-lived ...
By early September the prices had already begun to drift apart again. The slight drop in the cost of Asian panels is due to sporadically emerging inexpensive lots, but cannot yet be described as a trend. Furthermore, only a very few deliveries from Asia find their way to the European market. Currently, monocrystalline panels are the only ones being imported from China anymore, because they can still command a sale price above the MIP (minimum import price). This is particularly true of pure black modules, which are only used in the small array sector.
Polycrystalline modules come mostly from Southeast Asia, and are not subject to price restrictions - not yet. However, the production capacity of this region is rushing to keep up with demand from the US, which is leaving less volume available for the European market. Actually, in Germany there should be no shortage of polycrystalline modules, since a number of Chinese manufacturers have established their own fabs in Europe and Africa. Persistent repressive measures imposed by the European Commission, however, have had the result that facilities in these locations either produce panels only for the US market or have shut their doors entirely. Commissioners justify their negative attitude with the claim that it is no longer possible to determine which products come from Europe and which originate from China.
German and European products have become more expensive again with the surge in demand in late August and early September. The slide in prices in recent months appears to have been stopped for the time being. German panels on offer for prices far below the minimum import price for Chinese products have become few and far between. The official explanation from domestic manufacturers is that the low prices were only special offers which the strong order situation no longer justifies. On the other hand, they say that the purchase prices of cells and other raw materials have gone up.
However, one cannot help entertaining the suspicion that there are very different reasons for the back-paddling. The argument of the MIP advocates and their mouthpiece, the EU Prosun association, is that the panel prices of many Asian manufacturers do not reflect the actual cost of production and are dumping prices that can only be sustained with the help of government subsidies, and that argument of course loses credibility if the companies that espouse it are selling their own panels at the same prices. Now, the MIP advocates are regrouping for the next round of the "Solar Trade Wars" which aims to uphold the import restrictions and expand them to other regions in Asia.
The coming months will show the wisdom of this calculation. After all, there is a strong opposition to the increasing restrictions, which is steadily attracting support from more companies in the solar industry. In July, the Solar Alliance for Europe - SAFE, for short - formed around high-profile companies like BayWa r.e., MVV, EnBW, Schletter, IBC Solar and Lichtblick to call for an end to all trade restrictions and the expiration of the Undertaking on December 6.
Interestingly, both camps cite job losses as one of their key arguments. EU Prosun claims that European producers will shed jobs as a result of cut-throat Chinese competition, while SAFE says that the overall decline in new installations will be the cause of a far greater loss of employment.
But there is one thing that both, supporters and opponents of punitive tariffs and import restrictions, agree on: policy makers have failed and urgently need to create reasonable conditions for a more positive development of the European solar market.