The current situation in the module market could be called tense, if not dramatic. Now that there is finally healthy demand in the European solar market again, and many projects can finally be built, cheap products are scarce.
Standard polycrystalline modules from tier 1 manufacturers are virtually unavailable in bulk quantities, and the market for monocrystalline high-performance modules looks scarcely any better. The prices for the remaining stocks have risen steadily over the past few weeks. Promised delivery dates are not adhered to and often postponed by days, if not weeks.
But it’s not only products from well-known Asian brands that are hard to come by on the European market. Even the modules of unknown manufacturers, some of whom manufacture in the EU, are having difficulty keeping up with the increasing demand after the summer break. The same problems are even occurring with some well-known inverter manufacturers. Quite a few project developers and smaller EPCs complain that master supply agreements are not being adhered to by manufacturers and that the quantities ordered are not delivered as agreed. Most of all, efforts are being made to avoid upsetting their few major customers - internationally operating EPCs and distributors - and smaller customers are left in the lurch.
But where is this shortage of modules and inverters coming from, when module manufacturers are steadily reporting new sales records?
The problems in Europe are due in part to strong demand in China, which was driven by the gradual reduction in solar incentives at mid-year and year-end. China's National Energy Administration (NEA) recently announced the addition of 24.4 GWp of photovoltaic capacity in the first half of 2017. According to forecasts, well over 40 GWp of new PV capacity is expected to be added over the year as a whole. In contrast to the same period last year, growth will therefore remain relatively high in the coming months. In addition, the government has introduced subsidy programs to build a further 5.5 GW as part of the so-called Top Runner project - the deadline is the end of September 2017 and the goal is construction of highly efficient PV systems.
The second market that has a major influence on regional development in Europe in a globalized world is the American market. In the USA, many more PV systems were built in the second quarter of 2017 than originally forecast. According to GTM Research, newly installed capacity was just under 2.4 GW, an increase of more than 8% over the same quarter last year. However, it is becoming increasingly evident that many installers are willing to pay higher module prices than customers in Europe. The strong demand in the USA is mainly due to the anticipated announcement of the Suniva Petition by the USA’s International Trade Commission (ITC), which is expected to take place on 22 September 2017. Depending on the outcome of the investigations and the final decision of the president, there will either be further market foreclosure, or not, and the situation will improve.
At present, many US investors and PV companies seem to be expecting tighter market restrictions for Asian products and are therefore buying up any modules that can be delivered before the cut-off date. However, since in the USA, on average, prices are 10% higher than in Europe and up to 20% higher than in the rest of the world, it is not surprising where the urgently needed modules in this country end up or why prices have been rising steadily since the middle of the year. Nevertheless, the industry is optimistic, at least for the coming year, and is predicting further growth in Europe. Whatever the outcome of the US petition, the end of uncertainty and turbulence will have a positive impact on the rest of the world market.
Overview by technology of different price points in September 2017, including the changes over the previous month (The prices shown reflect average asking prices for duty-paid goods on the European spot market):
