Market Analysis
Module prices are at a level we have not seen since last fall, a fact that is mainly down to very high transport costs for container shipments. This is an insight I shared in my column last month. Whether and how bolstering local value creation through European cell and module production could lead to an end of dependence on Asia and break the upward cost spiral is what I would like to discuss this month. But first, let's have a look at the current price trends.
more ...Some time ago, when I lived in the center of Berlin, I used to visit the farmers' market to buy fresh fruit and vegetables every week. A greengrocer advertised his wares there with the words, "Cheap today, expensive tomorrow!" It would almost be desirable if we PV wholesalers could offer our modules with a similar slogan. Unfortunately, no one in the industry can currently claim that solar modules are cheap - quite the opposite. Following a brief respite, prices have climbed again in recent weeks. Since the previous low in September 2020, prices for new, grade-A goods have already risen by an average of 20% to a level not seen since April 2019.
more ...The sky is the limit. Fortunately, this expression does not apply to the current prices for PV panels, which have recently slackened a bit after a continuous rise since the beginning of the year. Whether this situation will hold steady, or whether prices will drop further in the coming months is hard to say at the moment. Polysilicon prices at least, and thus wafer and cell prices, could be in for a slight decline. However, a decisive movement in module prices in general is unlikely before the fourth quarter. Whether module prices move up or down this year essentially depends on the development of the international market. If a fourth wave of the coronavirus can be stopped or slowed in time, then the market should be in quite good shape on both the supply and demand sides. If the delta variant of the virus is not contained, however, there will be further bottlenecks in Asian production facilities and in the rest of the supply chain, which make the development of the market difficult to predict.
more ...More money for climate protection. That is what the G7 heads of state just agreed on at their recent summit in Cornwall, UK. That will involve making a whole lot more money available to expand renewable energy use and significantly increase the current pace of that of expansion. Following a successful constitutional complaint against their insufficient climate protection efforts, the governing parties in Germany have had to beef up their climate protection plan in recent weeks. Instead of by 2050, Germany would now commit to being climate-neutral by 2045, and the bar has been raised for the 2030 climate target as well: greenhouse gases will be cut not by the originally proposed 55 percent but by 65 percent. Nevertheless, climate experts warn that even these targets are not sufficient to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. In order to achieve the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, at least 200 gigawatts of installed capacity would have to be added by 2030 (from 55 gigawatts today). This would mean an annual increase in photovoltaics of at least 15 gigawatts in Germany alone, a far cry from the 2 to 3 gigawatts added annually in recent years!
more ...This somewhat time-worn slogan from the 1970s and 1980s is well known even outside Germany, but you hardly ever see or hear it anymore - least of all in Germany after the government decided to phase out nuclear power in the wake of the disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear reactor in Japan in 2011. This incident also brought the global expansion of nuclear power to a virtual standstill. Yet, despite all the latest developments and talk about climate protection in Germany and abroad, there is reason to be concerned that the use of nuclear fission as a low-carbon energy source may not be over yet. The successful constitutional complaint against the German government's short-sighted climate protection efforts has forced policy makers to make rapid improvements to their plans in recent weeks. This has occurred at a speed no one had previously thought possible. All that is lacking are concepts for concrete implementation and to flesh out the concepts already on the table. There is a fear that in the years ahead some politicians in Germany and elsewhere will lack the creativity to present anything other than good old nuclear energy as the best, or only, solution that can be implemented in enough time to make a difference.
more ...Module manufacturers have once again adjusted their prices upwards. This is already the third or fourth price increase in the last six months, and there is no end in sight. But why is it so hard to achieve long-term, sustainable development in the global solar market, at least on the part of manufacturers? I know of no other industry with such a turbulent market, with constant swings between excess supply and bottlenecks, between price collapses and price rises – and always to the breaking point of the market. Planning security is - yet, again - out the window.
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