The solar module market has shown little movement in either direction this month. Prices have experienced only a slight downward correction, driven mainly by weakening demand in recent weeks and slightly higher supplier inventories. To boost sales, some module prices dropped selectively by €0.005/W to €0.01/W, but these reductions may reverse in July.

The recovery in module prices, which followed a sharp decline in the second half of last year, appears to have stalled. Not much has changed in recent weeks. Some wholesalers have slightly raised prices for high-efficiency modules - an indication of continued supply constraints - but the increases remain too small to suggest a clear trend. Most brands continue trading just below or near production costs. Forecasts based on expected market developments in China point to a further drop in prices later this year due to overproduction risks, which could pressure manufacturers and trigger another round of consolidation in the solar industry.

Solar module prices in Europe rose slightly in April, but this only reflects a trend already expected and announced at the beginning of the year. The price increase is particularly noticeable for high-efficiency modules with different backsheets, as there are hardly any offers left in the lower power classes. These products have largely disappeared from wholesalers' warehouses due to the sell-offs of the past few months. Modules for large rooftop systems or ground-mounted photovoltaic projects, which also fall into this technology class, have been available only to order for some time. Occasionally, large quantities are still coming onto the market from warehouse clearances, but due to their age, these primarily influence price developments in the low-cost segment.

Solar modules have once again become more expensive in the retail and spot markets this month, although at a somewhat slower pace. All power classes increased by an average of 0.5 euro cents per watt peak. This trend is evident both in traditional module wholesalers and on various online trading platforms. It remains to be seen whether this is a long-term development or whether the price increase will halt again next month. Nevertheless, the shortage has continued, particularly in the higher power classes. New deliveries from manufacturers are being delayed, so their customers are increasingly having to look for and serve themselves on the spot market. Certain products are still available from stock here - but the price will quickly adjust upwards as demand increases.

After remaining flat early in the year, module prices have started rising for the first time in more than two years. The increase is affecting all technology classes, including high-efficiency modules, but the change in that category remains too small to register on price charts. That is likely to shift soon. Few discounted modules remain on the market, as production cuts are driving an artificial shortage. High-efficiency modules are becoming scarce, with no immediate supply in sight.

First, the good news: Early this year, module prices have remained stable across high-efficiency products and other typologies. Even modules with a fully black appearance (Full Black), reintroduced in the price index in January, are seeing minimal price movement. The upward trends in lower price categories reflected in the graph and barometer below stem partially from updated typology divisions. Advances in technology have shifted the boundary between "High Efficiency" and "Mainstream" modules to 22.5% - more explanations further down in the text.

In the last month of the year, the numbers in the module price index had to be revised downwards again, but the curves are noticeably flattening out. Although there is hardly any room for downward movement in any module class, manufacturers and dealers still have stocks that absolutely have to be sold before the turn of the year in order to be struck off the books. People want to start the new year with warehouses that are as empty as possible, which is why offers continue to circulate with absurd competitive prices that no longer have anything to do with the true value of the goods on offer. We will see whether this strategy is so clever in a few weeks at the latest, when the market picks up again after the Christmas break.

Even though I have written this several times here, but have had to revise it repeatedly in recent months - the sharp price drop in November could be the last of its kind for the time being and may mark the end of downward trend. The pain threshold seems to have been reached, no, even exceeded, and all signs point to a price recovery. However, prices have gone down considerably again from last month to this month, with a single cent per watt peak having a particularly serious percentage effect at the current price level. A price drop of around 8 percent on average across all technology classes actually pulverizes any margin that can still be achieved, even with modules that have only recently been purchased.

The European PV industry isn’t in a good state right now. Company insolvencies are on the rise, closely following a trend in Germany across all sectors. According to the German economy and finance news publication, Deutsche Wirtschaftsnachrichten, a sad peak was reached in the third quarter of 2024 of the highest number of bankruptcies since 2010. The minister president of Germany’s largest and second wealthiest state Bavaria and his CSU party would say that the Greens in the German federal government are to blame, just like they always like to do. But that's way too simplistic. Failing companies are suffering from a combination of self-inflicted problems and the continuing fall in prices.

Module prices have fallen slightly again, although this is hardly conceivable given the price level that has been below production costs for some time. This can only be explained by ongoing special sales campaigns to clear stocks at retailers and manufacturers. The end of the quarter is just around the corner and with it the publication of figures by listed companies. These should be as positive as possible and having too much stock is not a good idea, especially if it has to be continually devalued. Unfortunately, demand has not yet increased as much as hoped. All that providers can do is try to persuade their customers to buy with further discount campaigns.

The patient in this case is the photovoltaic market, from which we have received very different, sometimes contradictory signals in recent weeks. The summer slump is subsiding but reports of bankruptcies and insolvency are coming in. While installation figures have been promising, not least in Germany, the market is in trouble and manufacturers are concerned by continuing low prices. On the other hand, at least for Germany, quite respectable new construction figures have been reported in recent months, which do not at all reflect the acute problems in the market.

Module prices have remained stable or slightly declined this month, with no sign of change. Both residential and C&I demand continues to fall short of expectations, reaching lows not seen since late last year. Especially at the beginning of the holiday season, installers should prepare for a slow summer and consider new business models to keep their staff engaged. Without short-term orders in the pipeline, they will inevitably need to explore alternative approaches.