Few things are currently being discussed more controversially in the industry than the topic of where the national and international photovoltaics market, the energy transition, and our overall path to meeting climate targets will head in the near future, as well as how to interpret the inconsistent signals from politicians. However, everyone agrees that something must and will change. Whether this will be beneficial or detrimental to the continued rapid expansion of renewable energies cannot yet be determined with certainty. A closer look at this follows further in the text.

... what you can do today! PV investors, planners and professionals should take note as module prices fell again in August, hitting a new all-time low. Almost all technology classes now trade at or below January levels, even after efficiency thresholds distinguishing conventional and high-efficiency modules were raised by 0.5 percentage point.

Although module market trends were unclear in June, a picture has since begun to reemerge. July was a landmark month, but the air was apparently too thin for higher prices and they have now begun to fall again. The underlying reasons for this trend and the wider market suggest this downward movement could develop into a longer-term trend.

The solar module market has shown little movement in either direction this month. Prices have experienced only a slight downward correction, driven mainly by weakening demand in recent weeks and slightly higher supplier inventories. To boost sales, some module prices dropped selectively by €0.005/W to €0.01/W, but these reductions may reverse in July.

The recovery in module prices, which followed a sharp decline in the second half of last year, appears to have stalled. Not much has changed in recent weeks. Some wholesalers have slightly raised prices for high-efficiency modules - an indication of continued supply constraints - but the increases remain too small to suggest a clear trend. Most brands continue trading just below or near production costs. Forecasts based on expected market developments in China point to a further drop in prices later this year due to overproduction risks, which could pressure manufacturers and trigger another round of consolidation in the solar industry.

Solar module prices in Europe rose slightly in April, but this only reflects a trend already expected and announced at the beginning of the year. The price increase is particularly noticeable for high-efficiency modules with different backsheets, as there are hardly any offers left in the lower power classes. These products have largely disappeared from wholesalers' warehouses due to the sell-offs of the past few months. Modules for large rooftop systems or ground-mounted photovoltaic projects, which also fall into this technology class, have been available only to order for some time. Occasionally, large quantities are still coming onto the market from warehouse clearances, but due to their age, these primarily influence price developments in the low-cost segment.

Solar modules have once again become more expensive in the retail and spot markets this month, although at a somewhat slower pace. All power classes increased by an average of 0.5 euro cents per watt peak. This trend is evident both in traditional module wholesalers and on various online trading platforms. It remains to be seen whether this is a long-term development or whether the price increase will halt again next month. Nevertheless, the shortage has continued, particularly in the higher power classes. New deliveries from manufacturers are being delayed, so their customers are increasingly having to look for and serve themselves on the spot market. Certain products are still available from stock here - but the price will quickly adjust upwards as demand increases.

After remaining flat early in the year, module prices have started rising for the first time in more than two years. The increase is affecting all technology classes, including high-efficiency modules, but the change in that category remains too small to register on price charts. That is likely to shift soon. Few discounted modules remain on the market, as production cuts are driving an artificial shortage. High-efficiency modules are becoming scarce, with no immediate supply in sight.

First, the good news: Early this year, module prices have remained stable across high-efficiency products and other typologies. Even modules with a fully black appearance (Full Black), reintroduced in the price index in January, are seeing minimal price movement. The upward trends in lower price categories reflected in the graph and barometer below stem partially from updated typology divisions. Advances in technology have shifted the boundary between "High Efficiency" and "Mainstream" modules to 22.5% - more explanations further down in the text.

In the last month of the year, the numbers in the module price index had to be revised downwards again, but the curves are noticeably flattening out. Although there is hardly any room for downward movement in any module class, manufacturers and dealers still have stocks that absolutely have to be sold before the turn of the year in order to be struck off the books. People want to start the new year with warehouses that are as empty as possible, which is why offers continue to circulate with absurd competitive prices that no longer have anything to do with the true value of the goods on offer. We will see whether this strategy is so clever in a few weeks at the latest, when the market picks up again after the Christmas break.

Even though I have written this several times here, but have had to revise it repeatedly in recent months - the sharp price drop in November could be the last of its kind for the time being and may mark the end of downward trend. The pain threshold seems to have been reached, no, even exceeded, and all signs point to a price recovery. However, prices have gone down considerably again from last month to this month, with a single cent per watt peak having a particularly serious percentage effect at the current price level. A price drop of around 8 percent on average across all technology classes actually pulverizes any margin that can still be achieved, even with modules that have only recently been purchased.

The European PV industry isn’t in a good state right now. Company insolvencies are on the rise, closely following a trend in Germany across all sectors. According to the German economy and finance news publication, Deutsche Wirtschaftsnachrichten, a sad peak was reached in the third quarter of 2024 of the highest number of bankruptcies since 2010. The minister president of Germany’s largest and second wealthiest state Bavaria and his CSU party would say that the Greens in the German federal government are to blame, just like they always like to do. But that's way too simplistic. Failing companies are suffering from a combination of self-inflicted problems and the continuing fall in prices.